Interview: For BJP, polarisation has hit saturation point – but Karnataka will deliver clear verdict

With days to go for the Karnataka Assembly election on May 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be spending the weekend hectically campaigning in the state. Going by what political scientist and psephologist Sandeep Shastri says, could this could be a sign of concern in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, especially about support for the party from the key Lingayat community?

BS Yediyurappa, the party’s tallest Lingayat leader is no longer in electoral politics. This, combined with the BJP’s refusal to name the incumbent chief minister, Lingayat leader Basavraj Bommai as its candidate to head the government should it win and the exit of Lingayat leaders from the party could result in a drop in support, Shastri told Scroll.

“…I think the BJP does face a challenge in terms of the Lingayat vote,” said Shastri. “Maybe it’s a little early to say whether that dip is going to significantly impact the seat count of the party.”

Unhappiness with the state government is visible across the state – even among BJP supporters Shastri told Scroll in an interview. The party’s time-tested strategy of raising the communal temperature to consolidate its vote bank is unlikely to work, he said. After 2018, the BJP has realised that “the vote on that...

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