Popularity of South Africa’s ruling ANC plunges – but that may not help the opposition win the polls

As power cuts continue, the economy falters, unemployment rises and the currency tumbles, South Africa’s political commentators tend to agree that support for the governing African National Congress will fall under 50% in the 2024 national and provincial elections. If the party avoids a defeat, it could lead to a coalition government.

It’s only logical to expect that governance failures of this magnitude would send large numbers of dissatisfied voters into the arms of opposition parties.

But as scholars who have studied South African voter behaviour for decades, we warn opposition parties that they cannot count on disillusionment to drive voters towards them. Unless they convince dissatisfied voters that they provide a credible alternative, the ANC may still win a majority of votes come 2024.

How is this possible? Our argument is based on the confluence of two trends that have characterised South African elections for at least the past two decades. One is a decline in support for the ANC. The other is a steady decline in voter turnout.

Decline in ANC support and voter turnout

In 2006, 65% of all respondents in a nationally representative public opinion survey told Afrobarometer, the independent African survey network, that the country was “headed in the right direction”, and 52% “felt close” to the ANC. By 2018, however, those numbers had plunged to just 27% for those feeling the ANC was...

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