Somali piracy has returned – but a major rise in threats is unlikely

An Iranian fishing vessel, Almeraj 1, was reportedly hijacked by Somali pirates in November. According to media reports, the pirates demanded $400,000 in ransom and threatened to use the Iranian ship for additional hijackings if the payment was not made.

Two days later, other Somali pirates hijacked a tanker, Central Park, off the Yemeni coast. The tanker sent a distress signal during the attack. Forces from a nearby American warship captured the pirates as they tried to flee in a small boat.

The two attacks have led the Somali government to call for greater international support to deter a resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa. Similar fears that Somali piracy was on the rebound surfaced after five previous attacks in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

We have been studying the rise and fall of Somali piracy, and have tracked the problem for years. We do not regard a major rise in Somali piracy as likely.

Addressing the threat

Following previous threats, local authorities, experts and organisations tracking piracy globally warned that Somali pirates retained the capacity to launch attacks. This is also the current assessment of the International Maritime Bureau’s Piracy Reporting Centre, which acts to suppress piracy and armed robbery at sea.

The concern is not surprising.

Somali piracy was a major threat to the region and the world economy at its height in 2011. That year...

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