Why the Opposition’s support for a caste census falters in some states

Since the Bihar caste census was released on October 3, Opposition parties have raised the pitch in demanding representation proportional to the population caste-wise population. On Monday, the Congress said that if voted to power at the Centre, it will conduct a similar exercise at the national level and remove the 50% cap on caste-based quotas.

Much of this is driven by politics in the Hindi belt states, where the Opposition thinks that taking away enough backward caste votes from the Bharatiya Janata Party is critical for its chances. The principal constituents of the INDIA bloc in the two crucial Hindi states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) – have traditional vote banks among backward class groups.

However, this template does not necessarily replicate for the Opposition in states beyond the Hindi belt. Scroll analysed three states – Karnataka, West Bengal and Kerala – where INDIA-led governments are actually resistant to the idea of a caste census.

The ruling formations in these states fear that conducting a caste census could give rise to new political currents which might end up eroding their bases and even helping the BJP.

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